Check it out..Dire predictions. Is someone else in the room with you?
If the pendemic reaches yourneck of the woods, either you, or they will
be dead. Out of the 100 cases discovered half have died.

Ten things you need to know form the US GOVT pendemicflu.gov

Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza

14 October 2005

1. Pandemic influenza is different from avian influenza.

Avian influenza refers to a large group of different influenza viruses
that primarily affect birds. On rare occasions, these bird viruses can
infect other species, including pigs and humans. The vast majority of
avian influenza viruses do not infect humans. An influenza pandemic
happens when a new subtype emerges that has not previously circulated
in humans.

For this reason, avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since
it might ultimately adapt into a strain that is contagious among
humans. Once this adaptation occurs, it will no longer be a bird
virus--it will be a human influenza virus. Influenza pandemics are
caused by new influenza viruses that have adapted to humans.

2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events.

An influenza pandemic is a rare but recurrent event. Three pandemics
occurred in the previous century: "Spanish influenza" in 1918,
"Asian influenza" in 1957, and "Hong Kong influenza" in 1968.
The 1918 pandemic killed an estimated 40-50 million people worldwide.
That pandemic, which was exceptional, is considered one of the
deadliest disease events in human history. Subsequent pandemics were
much milder, with an estimated 2 million deaths in 1957 and 1 million
deaths in 1968.

A pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges and starts
spreading as easily as normal influenza - by coughing and sneezing.
Because the virus is new, the human immune system will have no
pre-existing immunity. This makes it likely that people who contract
pandemic influenza will experience more serious disease than that
caused by normal influenza.

3. The world may be on the brink of another pandemic.

Health experts have been monitoring a new and extremely severe
influenza virus - the H5N1 strain - for almost eight years. The
H5N1 strain first infected humans in Hong Kong in 1997, causing 18
cases, including six deaths. Since mid-2003, this virus has caused the
largest and most severe outbreaks in poultry on record. In December
2003, infections in people exposed to sick birds were identified.

Since then, over 100 human cases have been laboratory confirmed in four
Asian countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam), and more
than half of these people have died. Most cases have occurred in
previously healthy children and young adults. Fortunately, the virus
does not jump easily from birds to humans or spread readily and
sustainably among humans. Should H5N1 evolve to a form as contagious as
normal influenza, a pandemic could begin.

4. All countries will be affected.

Once a fully contagious virus emerges, its global spread is considered
inevitable. Countries might, through measures such as border closures
and travel restrictions, delay arrival of the virus, but cannot stop
it. The pandemics of the previous century encircled the globe in 6 to 9
months, even when most international travel was by ship. Given the
speed and volume of international air travel today, the virus could
spread more rapidly, possibly reaching all continents in less than 3
months.

5. Widespread illness will occur.

Because most people will have no immunity to the pandemic virus,
infection and illness rates are expected to be higher than during
seasonal epidemics of normal influenza. Current projections for the
next pandemic estimate that a substantial percentage of the world's
population will require some form of medical care. Few countries have
the staff, facilities, equipment, and hospital beds needed to cope with
large numbers of people who suddenly fall ill.

6. Medical supplies will be inadequate.

Supplies of vaccines and antiviral drugs - the two most important
medical interventions for reducing illness and deaths during a pandemic
- will be inadequate in all countries at the start of a pandemic and
for many months thereafter. Inadequate supplies of vaccines are of
particular concern, as vaccines are considered the first line of
defence for protecting populations. On present trends, many developing
countries will have no access to vaccines throughout the duration of a
pandemic.

7. Large numbers of deaths will occur.

Historically, the number of deaths during a pandemic has varied
greatly. Death rates are largely determined by four factors: the number
of people who become infected, the virulence of the virus, the
underlying characteristics and vulnerability of affected populations,
and the effectiveness of preventive measures. Accurate predictions of
mortality cannot be made before the pandemic virus emerges and begins
to spread. All estimates of the number of deaths are purely
speculative.

WHO has used a relatively conservative estimate - from 2 million to
7.4 million deaths - because it provides a useful and plausible
planning target. This estimate is based on the comparatively mild 1957
pandemic. Estimates based on a more virulent virus, closer to the one
seen in 1918, have been made and are much higher. However, the 1918
pandemic was considered exceptional.

8. Economic and social disruption will be great.

High rates of illness and worker absenteeism are expected, and these
will contribute to social and economic disruption. Past pandemics have
spread globally in two and sometimes three waves. Not all parts of the
world or of a single country are expected to be severely affected at
the same time. Social and economic disruptions could be temporary, but
may be amplified in today's closely interrelated and interdependent
systems of trade and commerce. Social disruption may be greatest when
rates of absenteeism impair essential services, such as power,
transportation, and communications.

9. Every country must be prepared.

WHO has issued a series of recommended strategic actions for responding
to the influenza pandemic threat. The actions are designed to provide
different layers of defence that reflect the complexity of the evolving
situation. Recommended actions are different for the present phase of
pandemic alert, the emergence of a pandemic virus, and the declaration
of a pandemic and its subsequent international spread.

10. WHO will alert the world when the pandemic threat increases.

WHO works closely with ministries of health and various public health
organizations to support countries' surveillance of circulating
influenza strains. A sensitive surveillance system that can detect
emerging influenza strains is essential for the rapid detection of a
pandemic virus.

Six distinct phases have been defined to facilitate pandemic
preparedness planning, with roles defined for governments, industry,
and WHO. The present situation is categorized as phase 3: a virus new
to humans is causing infections, but does not spread easily from one
person to another.