Kudos to Simple Simon
 

Perhaps I was wishing too hard for Isabel to bring me my newer,
bigger, better boat, which I had planned to name "Insure Off-Shore"
Scout



"Donal" wrote:


"Scout" wrote in message
.. .
and triple kudos to Scout, who predicted it would blow by us NE
seaboarders "like a dandy." I was so confident in my prediction that I
didn't even add extra lines. Could I have been any more accurate?
Scout

Awesome!!

I propose that you be awarded the title "Simple Scout"!



Regards


Donal

Kudos to Simple Simon
 

"Scout" wrote in message
...
Perhaps I was wishing too hard for Isabel to bring me my newer,
bigger, better boat, which I had planned to name "Insure Off-Shore"
Scout

"Groan"!!


Regards


Donal
--

Kudos to Simple Simon
 

Lets look at the actual record. The archives of the Tropical Prediction Center are
published:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/ISABEL.shtml?

On 9/12 1500Z they were not willing to give landfall predictions, but they did project a 5
day forecast position of:
120HR VT 17/1200Z 27.5N 75.0W 105 KT

Where was Isabel at this time? At:
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 72.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.

The net prediction was about 126 miles South, 100 miles West, winds off by 10 kts. If you
look a day later the 4 day prediction narrowed this discrepancy by half. The 5 day was
about 100 miles off.

What was Neal's prediction?
On 9/12: "I'm glad the thing is going to head up to the New York area."

On 9/13: "You live up there in the New York area, don't you?
Bwahahahahaha! Better batten down the hatches.
....
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at weather maps
and project highly likely long-term paths for hurricanes.
The weather service would have people believe they have
some sort of magical lock on understanding. This is just
not the case. Anyone with an above average mind who
lives and studies the weather on a daily basis can do
just as well as the so-called professionals and better than
they can provided one has highly superior intellect like
I do."

On 9/15 Neal reiterated his claim that Isabel would hit NYC, "towards Booby's dock where
it will slam him senseless."

Neal's landfall prediction was over 300 miles North of where it actually occurred. New
York officially had a few gusts to about 32 mph. While the NHC didn't make a landfall
prediction 5 days in advance, if you consider that their original predictions were 100
miles south of the track, that might imply a landfall in southern NC. Wrightsville Beach
had 12 hours of strong wind, steady at 30+ (near 40 at 1PM) with gusts 40 to 55 for the
entire period.

By 9/14, the NHC prediction was for landfall north of Hatteras, maybe 50 miles north of
the actual strike. Neal continued to make the claim the Isabel would turn far North.

When you consider the possibilities, it not clear that Neal could have been more wrong
than he was.

-jeff

P.S. I was not foolish enough to make a public prediction, but my private early
prediction was for landfall at Cape Lookout, followed by a pass over Belhaven, NC. This
was not from any careful study of the weather map, but from the knowledge that the odd
marina in Belhaven seems to be a hurricane magnet.





"Simple Simon" wrote in message
...
As usual, S.Simon's fearless, seven-day hurricane forecast was almost
spot on. As a matter of fact the track I predicted was less than ten degrees
off from the track that eventuated. Not even the so-called professionals
can do better than that.

S.Simon